September 2025 U.S. Housing Market Snapshot: What Investors Need to Know

September 2025 U.S. Housing Market Snapshot

The U.S. housing market in September 2025 continues to evolve under the influence of high mortgage rates, cooling demand, and slowing construction activity. While price growth remains modest, regional variations and supply shifts are creating new opportunities for informed investors.

This month’s report focuses on four major areas shaping the market:

• Home Price & Sales Trends

• Rent & Supply Dynamics

• Construction Activity & Future Pipeline

• Market Forecasts from Leading Analysts

Let’s dive in.

1. Home Price Trends: Cooling, but Still Resilient

Existing-home sales saw mixed signals this season. Sales rose 2.0% in July, driven by gains in the Northeast, South, and West, while the Midwest experienced a slight pullback. Month-over-month activity eased 0.7%, reflecting a softer pace.

Homes are also spending more time on the market—44 days on average, compared to 37 days last year—showing a gradual shift toward more balanced conditions.

National price growth remains steady at 2.9% year-over-year, with no quarter-over-quarter change.
Some states stood out with above-average appreciation:

• New York: +8%

• Connecticut: +7.8%

• New Jersey: +7.5%

• Mississippi: +7.3%

• Illinois: +6.7%

While not as sharp as the pandemic-era spikes, these increases indicate continued demand in key regional markets.

2. Rent & Supply Dynamics: Rising Rents, Mixed Inventory Trends

Rents continued a modest rise, up 2.6% year-over-year, though cities like Denver and Phoenix posted slight declines—an early sign of market normalization.

Inventory tells another story.
Markets such as San Antonio recorded a 27.7% increase in available homes, providing buyers with more choice and moderating local competition.

However, this expanded supply may be short-lived. With construction slowing (more below), rent growth is likely to strengthen again in 2026 as fewer new units enter the pipeline.

3. Housing Construction Trends: A Significant Slowdown Ahead

One of the most important signals this month comes from the construction sector.

• New housing starts are slowing nationwide.

• Permits and new-build activity are trending downward.

• Multifamily construction is projected to drop nearly 49% in 2026.

This contraction will reduce the availability of new rental units, tightening supply and placing upward pressure on rents over the next 12–24 months.

For investors, this means today’s stabilized rents may not last. Markets with declining construction could see stronger rent appreciation in the near future.

4. Market Forecast: What Analysts Expect Next

Economic uncertainty, inflation, and persistent mortgage rates continue to shape analyst expectations.

Moody’s

• Home prices expected to rise 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026 if mortgage rates remain elevated.

Goldman Sachs

• Mortgage rates likely to hover near 6.75% by year-end.

• Home prices projected to grow 3.2% in 2025.

Redfin

• “Normal” affordability (≈30% of income toward housing) may return by 2030—but only if rates fall to ~5.5%.

• At current rate levels, affordability may not normalize until 2034.

What This Means for Investors

The market may appear steady on the surface, but beneath it are major shifts that can create opportunities:

• Cooling price growth = better entry points

• Higher inventory in select markets = stronger buyer leverage

• Construction slowdown = future rent acceleration

• Affordability timeline = long-term strategy planning

Positioning in the right micro-markets today can lead to stronger returns as supply tightens and demand stabilizes.

Conclusion

September 2025 illustrates a market in transition—cooling, rebalancing, and setting the stage for meaningful shifts in 2026 and beyond.
For investors, this is a moment to watch closely, analyze locally, and plan strategically.